| 2/1/2006 8:54:00 AM | Email this article • Print this article | Snowpack: a tale of two extremes
by Jason Starr
Mail Staff Writer
Mike Gillespie has been measuring snowpack in Colorado since 1984 and has never seen as much variability within the Arkansas River basin as there is this season.
Snowpacks at the north end of the basin are as high as 172 percent of average and to the south and east they dip as low as 25 percent, Natural Resources Conservation Service records showed Tuesday.
“It’s common to see the Arkansas behave differently in the south and north be-cause the basin gets its weather from two different sources,” Gillespie, snow survey supervisor for the conservation service, said.
“This year, especially, the Arkansas is getting two ex-tremes.
“I don’t recall a year that’s been this extreme… . If this pat-tern continues, that would definitely be a first for me.”
The Arkansas River basin stretches from Fremont Pass north of Leadville to the Apishapa River headwaters near Trinidad. As a whole, snowpack in the basin is at 99 percent of the historical average.
The storm track this season has so far consistently favored the northern mountains of the state and has forsaken the southern mountains. Snowpack in the Upper Colorado River basin is the deepest in Colorado at 126 percent of average with the Yampa and White River basins close behind at 124 percent.
Snowpack in the North Platte River basin is 120 percent of average and 117 percent in the South Platte River basin. The Gunnison River basin is at 97 percent of average.
To the south, the Upper Rio Grande basin is at 46 percent of average and the San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan river basins are at 55 percent.
Gillespie said the dry areas of the state, which received copious moisture last season, could see wildfire conditions similar to those of 2002 – the infamous recent drought year.
“We’re seeing a reversal of the weather from last year,” Gillespie said. “The drought has just moved around, but it never was completely eliminated in the state.”
Unless spring storms buck the weather pattern keeping most of the moisture in the mountains and setting optimistic predictions for summer flows on the Arkansas River, the lower elevations of the Arkansas River basin may face high spring and summer fire danger.
“A lot of lower elevation (areas) – Cañon City and Salida – are very dry. We’ll be looking at dry vegetation and soil moisture. But at the same time, the Arkansas River and the rafters should be having a good year,” Gillespie said.
Recent Natural Resources Conservation Service forecasts predict Arkansas River flow at 125 percent of average from April through July. In the basin’s southern tributaries, the prediction is for flow at 75 percent of average.
“It will depend on where you are located,” Gillespie said. “If you derive your water from the main stem, you’ll be doing OK with good runoff. But if you’re from the south and you rely on the smaller tributaries as a water supply, it will be a lean year.”
Nationally, some areas of Arizona have snowpack percentages in the single digits while in Oregon, snowpack is as high as 160 percent.
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